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Activation Control: An Alternate Framework for Explaining Variation of Deep Convection

Barr-Kumarakulasinghe, S.A., Brookhaven National Laboratory
Eighth Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Science Team Meeting

An alternate conceptual framework with the ability to explain large scale variation in convection, but still have the ability to explain shorter time scale (weekly) variation of convection is presented. In contrast, the current quasi-equilibrium and statistical equilibrium control framework, appears to be only successful in explaining monthly and large scale variations in convection and circulation patterns. Mapes has referred to an alternate concept as activation control, though not actually offering a solution or methodology. This abstract presents an activation control diagnostic and prognostic mechanisms that are able to explain the temporal evolution of deep convection in the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) during TOGA-COARE. Based on this Intra Seasonal Oscillation, events are shown to be an activation controlled interaction of the mature phase of synoptic events and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wind, resulting in enhanced large scale convective events.

Note: This is the poster abstract presented at the meeting; an extended version was not provided by the author(s).